It's hard to imagine any stock gaining 500% over the next three years when investors are still reeling from the market's 20% slump as we close out 2022. But a lot can happen in that amount of time, especially if a bull market breaks out again. And a few good stocks could potentially manage such an exceptional gain.
Consider global e-commerce solution provider Global-e Online (GLBE -4.56%) which is down 68% from its high of nearly $80 last year. To get back to that price, it would need to gain around 250% from its current price of $20. That sounds like a lot, but it was just there last year, which makes it sound at least potentially attainable. Some stocks that fall so much never go back to those kinds of highs, but there's reason to believe Global-e can get there, especially in a bull market.
By the end of 2025, it's a distinct possibility that Global-e could gain double that amount, especially considering how fast it's growing in this down economy. Dutch Bros (BROS -1.69%) and MercadoLibre (MELI -0.98%) are two other stocks that could potentially turn $10,000 into $50,000 by 2025. Let's take a closer look at all three stocks.
- Global-e: The gateway to international e-commerce
Global-e markets cross-border solutions for e-commerce retailers, allowing them to sell more easily to shoppers around the world. It has a variety of packages for businesses of different sizes, and it counts some of the world's largest brands as customers, including LVMH and Walt Disney. It recently also acquired competitor Borderfree.
Global-e's tools provide a simple way for companies to grow their businesses, with much to gain and almost nothing to lose. That's very compelling, especially in this environment, for two reasons. First, the advent of e-commerce has made international shopping much more feasible. Second, the economic crunch means retailers are looking for innovative ways to stimulate growth. Revenue in the 2022 third quarter increased 79% over last year , and it's been in the high double digits since Global-e went public a year-and-a-half ago. Adjusted gross profit increased 92%, outpacing revenue growth, and adjusted gross profit margin expanded from 38.6% to 41.5%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased by 11.9%.
The company's net loss, however, expanded from $28.5 million to $66.5 million. Much of that was due to the amortization of warrants related to investments from Shopify, which is a strong backer as well as an important partner, and that will come off expenses as the warrants become fully amortized. In other words, scaling is improving profitability, and there's a very viable path toward profitability.
E-commerce sales growth worldwide is decelerating after exploding at the beginning of the pandemic, but it's still expected to come in at around 9% annually over the next few years. Global-e has positioned itself to be the go-to solution for both small and large-size businesses who are looking to expand their revenue sources, and it's likely to gain more clients. Revenue growth is also likely to accelerate when the economy improves and people spend more. That should tip the scale toward positive net income.
Global-e stock trades at 10 times trailing-12-month sales, which isn't cheap. But as the company grows, its stock could be explosive.
- Dutch Bros: The huge expansion program
Dutch Bros operates 641 coffee shops in 14 Western U.S. states. Those locations have been posting mixed comparable-store results in the pressured economy, but with the company's differentiated culture and focus on customer service, my hunch is that those will improve with a stronger macro economy.
In the meantime, Dutch Bros is opening many new stores that are powering high sales growth. Sales increased 53% year over year in the third quarter, a huge increase by any standards, but even more so when compared with similar restaurant chains during this period.
Dutch Bros' strategy is to continue opening at a fast pace to drive sales. Considering that it sees a market for at least 4,000 new stores over the next 10 to 15 years, it has a long runway to open many stores for years. It plans to open 150 stores in 2023, even more than this year. And as it opens stores, Dutch Bros benefits from greater economies of scale, from which it's already benefiting. Company-operated shop contribution margin, which measures how much more each new shop adds to total sales, improved by 0.4% in the third quarter.
By 2025, Dutch Bros could be operating more than 1,000 stores. Between sales from those stores and higher same-store sales, Dutch Bros could, and should, be a huge growth company with plenty more opportunity. As the market recovers, Dutch Bros stock is likely to take off big. And with shares trading at 2.3 times trailing-12-month sales, now is a great time to buy.
- MercadoLibre: The Latin American e-commerce powerhouse
MercadoLibre has been enjoying fabulous growth pretty much since it started. Sales skyrocketed even more as e-commerce and digital sales exploded during the pandemic, and MercadoLibre is now well-positioned as the leader in Latin American e-commerce to benefit from continued digital adoption in its 18 countries of operation.
Not only is it benefiting from trends, but it's actively advancing its mission and leveraging its lead by improving its services and offering an expanded suite of solutions for its customers. Some of these look like small improvements, such as faster delivery. But that can make a huge difference to customers and their adoption.
Management attributed its strong showing on Black Friday in Brazil -- where overall e-commerce sales were down 23% from last year but up 19% for MercadoLibre -- to these kinds of investments in its business. But it's also doing bigger things. What began as a digital payment app to allow unbanked customers to pay for e-commerce purchases has ballooned into a large financial services app that powers off-platform digital payments, credit cards, investments, loans, and more.
The fintech part of the business is still a small part of the whole, but it's also the fastest-growing. Total off-platform payment volume (TPV) increased 122% (on a currency neutral basis) in the third quarter over last year , and digital account TPV, which was mostly credit card and wallet payments, increased 138%.
MercadoLibre's stock is down 37% this year, and it could be a massive gainer over the next few years.